Posted by Dahcredyns in
GM,
Hybrid Cars,
Hybrids on 04 27th, 2012 |
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Where is the auto industry taking us?
Energy density according to Exxon. Hybrids, EVs, fuel cells. Or gas-guzzlers forever? I was cleaning out some bookmarks and came across this graph in an interesting article regarding energy density. The article and the graph come from Exxon , which used the graph to explain why by 2040, 90 percent of transportation would still be fueled by liquid fuels. Now, there are countless arguments to make as to why Exxon is wrong, and I’m not going to make any of them. Instead, I wonder just one simple thing: Where is the auto industry taking us? I’ve written about it many times, but many years ago Anthony Pratt, a JD Power powertrain analyst at the time, forecast that by 2010 sales of hybrid cars would come in just under 3 percent. Now this was in 2004 or 2005, if I recall correctly, and I was fully convinced then that hybrids were going to be closer to 10 percent by 2010 and on the path to mainstream success because of lithium. Turns out Pratt’s prediction was perfect. Why? Because he simply followed the moves of the auto industry, in terms of supplies, manufacturing capabilities and even internal company forecasts. Even if hybrid car demand exploded between his forecast and 2010, it would take years for the auto industry to react in any meaningful way. Today’s battery-powered space, for instance, is a bit different. Today, the lithium battery industry is headed for overcapacity, not under-capacity. Thus, automakers have a bit more power to surprise to the upside in terms of hybrid and plug-in production. But how much? Likewise, automakers can make updates to production and assembly lines on the fly faster than in the past. More upside potential. Nevertheless, Nissan has forecast 10 percent plug-in penetration by 2020, the highest forecast in the auto industry. Thus, it seems that much greater than 10 percent penetration is highly unlikely. By 2020, therefore, at least 90 percent of transportation will still be liquid-fueled, and that’s a best case scenario. Still, that’s 20 years before 2040. Most analysts — think back to Mr. Pratt — have far lower expectations for electric car penetration, and it must be assumed that, like Pratt, their forecasts are also largely based on production capabilities and supply chain realities....