Posted by Dahcredyns in
GM,
Hybrid Cars,
Hybrids on 01 6th, 2012 |
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EVs are awesome, but they can’t save the world. What now?
The Leaf is a great car, but can it really change the world? Can the world wait for electrification? I was never much of a car guy growing up. It wasn’t until the first hybrid cars hit the street that autos started catching my attention, especially since code was such a big part of their powertrain, and coming from the software industry, that was compelling. Plus, after 9/11 it just seemed obvious that things needed to change, and batteries and fuel cells seemed so necessary. For years I didn’t care about any new vehicle technology except those with batteries. I even wrote off fuel cells for a while. Sure I believed they would happen one day, but my focus was today. In that regard hybrids, including those with plugs, seemed the game-changing call to action. Of course, in the early days, I had never heard of issues such as the legacy effect. Nor did I have any understanding of the depth of automotive supply chains and their impact on scale in the auto industry, nor how long it takes to move a car from concept to reality or to retool a production platform. Likewise, I didn’t know much about battery technologies themselves. I just assumed once lithium hit the street, it was on. Well, lithium has hit the street, but the revolution is far from on. Why? For one, there is little consensus in the auto industry regarding how exactly the auto industry is going to move forward according to a recent KPMG study of automotive industry executives. While automakers are investing heavily in all forms of electrification — hybrids, plug-in hybrids, range extended electrics, battery electrics, and fuel cells — there is no consensus regarding which will dominate and when. In fact, it seems obvious that their won’t be ONE powertrain solution for many decades into the future. By 2025, for example, automakers expect all the above forms of electrified powertrains, combined, to achieve less than 15 percent of total auto sales, combined . Sure, some form of hybrid is the dominant technology, but there isn’t even one hybrid technology that dominates. Several years ago I might have questioned such a study, arguing that these automotive execs just can’t think outside of their box, or they don’t realize how fast technologies are going to...